Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 12.368890 14.170066 16.112745 18.360161 20.884726 23.629191 26.834675
2025-03-30 9.897777 12.369179 15.241897 18.812883 23.116720 28.119514 34.356983
2025-04-06 8.392896 11.099344 14.401045 18.697618 24.110180 30.668697 39.179921
2025-04-13 6.878421 9.590569 13.051073 17.747951 23.907886 31.656904 42.079536
2025-04-20 6.233985 9.083250 12.856266 18.157316 25.341071 34.655268 47.547421
2025-04-27 5.684438 8.625625 12.655340 18.497969 26.653464 37.518246 52.946076
2025-05-04 5.086763 8.024475 12.182199 18.392495 27.305595 39.484060 57.192646
2025-05-11 4.534106 7.424501 11.644137 18.127520 27.679814 41.045126 60.914547
2025-05-18 4.138165 7.015494 11.338523 18.155814 28.444046 43.153368 65.463747
2025-05-25 3.837883 6.722151 11.173730 18.365723 29.463142 45.648007 70.651737
2025-06-01 3.521628 6.369996 10.883914 18.351216 30.124906 47.629623 75.155551
2025-06-08 3.207285 5.989009 10.513573 18.173968 30.508894 49.193458 79.081675
2025-06-15 2.985813 5.751082 10.363977 18.350655 31.473544 51.709635 84.611694
2025-06-22 2.860327 5.669478 10.465799 18.941952 33.127985 55.360653 92.045732
2025-06-29 2.616520 5.349514 10.134243 18.777824 33.531403 57.055199 96.481780
2025-07-06 2.275127 4.814090 9.383781 17.840481 32.588461 56.547776 97.389521
2025-07-13 2.170622 4.719039 9.406450 18.246076 33.921512 59.759546 104.382764
2025-07-20 2.065480 4.612160 9.397566 18.590231 35.159607 62.858995 111.306384
2025-07-27 1.909305 4.387308 9.151092 18.483589 35.597649 64.636133 116.106161
2025-08-03 1.747724 4.134994 8.831881 18.217676 35.730859 65.892891 120.070458
2025-08-10 1.634811 3.974127 8.676338 18.246013 36.388870 68.064004 125.653465
2025-08-17 1.550884 3.867735 8.619522 18.456886 37.386203 70.855570 132.394941
2025-08-24 1.449855 3.713329 8.453665 18.442304 37.958770 72.917716 137.939713